SCR Altach 1-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SCR Altach face FC BW Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to CASHPOINT Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
SCR Altach's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC BW Linz's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC BW Linz's away record over their last 8 away games: 2W 0D 6L (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.20 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SCR Altach, 0 for FC BW Linz and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended SCR Altach 1–1 FC BW Linz — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 29% versus FC BW Linz 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | FC BW Linz 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.54 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.913 / defence 0.917 | FC BW Linz attack 0.873 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.188. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SCR Altach's projected output up. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 39 games and FC BW Linz's last 17.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.96 | Draw 3.90 | FC BW Linz 4.29. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 30% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 50% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG SCR Altach 1.54 / FC BW Linz 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.913 / def 0.917 | FC BW Linz attack 0.873 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 51% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SCR Altach and FC BW Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.91) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.87x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 39 games and FC BW Linz's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.90
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.49
0.95
FC BW Linz xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.95 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 4D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.00 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SCR Altach's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across their last 8 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 8 away games (2W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.12 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or FC BW Linz away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.25 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 25%, FC BW Linz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 62% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SCR Altach have failed to score in 50% of games; FC BW Linz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and FC BW Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 50% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 62% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 75% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and FC BW Linz finished level at 1-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.54 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against FC BW Linz attack 0.87 / defence 1.32, drawn from 39/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 51% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 23%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, FC BW Linz 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.94 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.