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Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat Austria Vienna 2-5 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.32 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 57%, Sturm Graz 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.78 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights