Austria Vienna 0-3 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 40%, yet in-form Lask Linz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Austria Vienna welcome Lask Linz to Generali Arena in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 32). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Vienna's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lask Linz stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Lask Linz's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lask Linz's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Austria Vienna's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Austria Vienna's games and 90% of Lask Linz's (from Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Lask Linz's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Austria Vienna, 4 for Lask Linz and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2026, ended Austria Vienna 1–4 Lask Linz — a Lask Linz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 57% versus Lask Linz 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 56% | Lask Linz 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and Lask Linz 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.064 / defence 1.007 | Lask Linz attack 1.104 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.49 | Draw 3.71 | Lask Linz 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lask Linz (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Lask Linz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 32 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.44 / Lask Linz 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.064 / def 1.007 | Lask Linz attack 1.104 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lask Linz xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Austria Vienna 0 - 3 Lask Linz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 32) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 40% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Austria Vienna and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.71
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.72
1.28
Lask Linz xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.28 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 32W 11D 20L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Lask Linz's form line: 33W 13D 17L from 63 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.70 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.74 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 6D 9L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 14W 6D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.68 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Lask Linz
Current Season
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Lask Linz
Current Season
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 32W 11D 20L in their last 63 games (1.70 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 33W 13D 17L in their last 63 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.74 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lask Linz have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 58%, Lask Linz 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Austria Vienna and 61% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Lask Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Austria Vienna's games and 64% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Vienna's matches and 61% of Lask Linz's.
Do Austria Vienna and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 74% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Austria Vienna 0-3 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and Lask Linz 1.28 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lask Linz outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Lask Linz attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 56%, Lask Linz 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.70 PPG, Lask Linz 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.