Vorskla Poltava 1-5 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 2 for Dynamo Kyiv and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 50% versus Dynamo Kyiv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | Dynamo Kyiv 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.34 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.095 / defence 1.093 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.267 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.230. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Vorskla Poltava games / 48 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 30% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 46%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.17. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 70% | Dynamo Kyiv 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 30% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.34 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.095 / def 1.093 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.267 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Dynamo Kyiv xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 30% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (4 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 1 | Dynamo Kyiv 2W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (1.09) and Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
30%
3.30
24%
4.22
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
3.05
1.70
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
18.11
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.70 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 11D 16L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.04 PPG from 48 outings (30W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.13 points per game from 23 outings (15W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 1.92 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 11D 16L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 30W 8D 10L in their last 48 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.65 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
4
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 56%, Dynamo Kyiv 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Vorskla Poltava) and 56% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Dynamo Kyiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 65% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 56% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Vorskla Poltava 1-5 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.34 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.70 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.70 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.27 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 30% | Draw 24% | Dynamo Kyiv 46%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 46%, Dynamo Kyiv 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.54. Form held, and they took the win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.