Oleksandria 1-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oleksandria face Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Vorskla Poltava in Premier League (matchday 21). Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Oleksandria's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Oleksandria have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Vorskla Poltava's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Oleksandria, 1.60 for Vorskla Poltava — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Oleksandria, 2 for Vorskla Poltava and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Oleksandria 0–1 Vorskla Poltava — a Vorskla Poltava win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 51% versus Vorskla Poltava 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 47% | Vorskla Poltava 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.65 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.721 / defence 1.094 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.881 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.148. Oleksandria's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 49 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 50.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 45%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.92 | Draw 2.88 | Vorskla Poltava 2.22. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Oleksandria's lower xG of 0.65 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Oleksandria's last 10 home games and Vorskla Poltava's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 20% (last 10 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Oleksandria 0.65 / Vorskla Poltava 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.721 / def 1.094 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.881 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 15 March 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 20% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.72x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.88x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 49 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
20%
4.92
35%
2.88
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
1.76
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
4.92
20%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 19.0 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.11 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 15W 19D 15L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 21W 11D 17L from 49 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.51 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 10W 5D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs Vorskla Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 15W 19D 15L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 11D 17L in their last 49 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.46 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won Oleksandria 3-0 Vorskla Poltava on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Vorskla Poltava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 46% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 46% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 67% of Vorskla Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.65 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 20% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 45%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Oleksandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 47%, Vorskla Poltava 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.31 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.