Zorya Luhansk 2-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Zorya Luhansk have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Zorya Luhansk, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Zorya Luhansk 1–2 FC Kharkiv — a FC Kharkiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 48% versus FC Kharkiv 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 60% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.44 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.009 / defence 0.786 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.861 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.230. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.344 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zorya Luhansk's projected output up. Zorya Luhansk have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling FC Kharkiv's projected output down. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 48 games and FC Kharkiv's last 51.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 52% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 1.94 | Draw 3.72 | FC Kharkiv 4.62. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 20% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 52% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.44 / FC Kharkiv 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.009 / def 0.786 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.861 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk 2 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 52% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.01) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zorya Luhansk's last 48 games and FC Kharkiv's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.72
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.28
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.83 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zorya Luhansk's recent record stands at 25W 11D 12L from 48 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 23L across 48 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zorya Luhansk by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zorya Luhansk have managed 13W 5D 5L from their last 23 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 9D 11L across their last 23 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.85 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 25W 11D 12L in their last 48 games (1.79 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 16D 23L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.91 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won FC Kharkiv 1-6 Zorya Luhansk.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Zorya Luhansk 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 52%, FC Kharkiv 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Zorya Luhansk) and 30% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 30%; FC Kharkiv in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 35% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 30% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 65% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out FC Kharkiv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat FC Kharkiv 2-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.44 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 0.79 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 48/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 52% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 60%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.