Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dnipro-1 (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kolos Kovalivka face Dnipro-1.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kolos Kovalivka at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dnipro-1 have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Dnipro-1 are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Dnipro-1 have the stronger record — 3 wins to Kolos Kovalivka's 0, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Kolos Kovalivka 1–1 Dnipro-1 — a draw.
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 26% versus Dnipro-1 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 24% | Dnipro-1 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.80 xG and Dnipro-1 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.824 / defence 0.823 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.966 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.284. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 50 games and Dnipro-1's last 51.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 32% | Dnipro-1 40%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.59 | Draw 3.09 | Dnipro-1 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Kolos Kovalivka's lower xG of 0.80 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Dnipro-1's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 10% (last 10 home games) | Dnipro-1 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 32% | Dnipro-1 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.80 / Dnipro-1 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.824 / def 0.823 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.966 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Dnipro-1 xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 28% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.82) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.97x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 50 games and Dnipro-1's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
28%
3.59
32%
3.09
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.82
1.02
Dnipro-1 xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 16.5 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.02 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kolos Kovalivka's recent record stands at 15W 15D 20L from 50 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 9L across 50 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kolos Kovalivka heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kolos Kovalivka have managed 8W 6D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 15W 5D 4L across their last 24 away games, a 2.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.74 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 31W 10D 9L in their last 50 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.25 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Kolos Kovalivka
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 March 2024: Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 21%, Dnipro-1 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 50% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 42%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 50% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 50% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 62% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.80 xG and Dnipro-1 1.02 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.82 / defence 0.82 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 32% | Dnipro-1 40%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 24%, Dnipro-1 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.