Chornomorets 0-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 36%, yet in-form Vorskla Poltava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava meet at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Chornomorets at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chornomorets are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Vorskla Poltava's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Vorskla Poltava arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Vorskla Poltava, who have 3 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Chornomorets 1–2 Vorskla Poltava — a Vorskla Poltava win.
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 52% versus Vorskla Poltava 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 52% | Vorskla Poltava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.16 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.121 / defence 1.026 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.873 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.188. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 48 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 49.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 36% | Draw 33% | Vorskla Poltava 31%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.77 | Draw 3.07 | Vorskla Poltava 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vorskla Poltava (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 40% (last 10 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 36% | Draw 33% | Vorskla Poltava 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Chornomorets 1.16 / Vorskla Poltava 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.121 / def 1.026 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.873 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Vorskla Poltava xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava FAQs
What time does Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 36% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.87x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Chornomorets's last 48 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
36%
2.77
33%
3.07
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.23
1.06
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.06 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 16W 10D 22L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 20W 11D 17L from 48 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.48 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.13 PPG from their last 23 home games (7W 5D 11L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 5D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.19 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Chornomorets (Home) vs Vorskla Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chornomorets
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 20W 11D 17L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.13 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
5
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Chornomorets have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 39%, Vorskla Poltava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chornomorets) and 48% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 35% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 52% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chornomorets's recent games and 48% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 70% of Vorskla Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.16 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.06 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 36% | Draw 33% | Vorskla Poltava 31%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 52%, Vorskla Poltava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.21 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.