Vorskla Poltava 2-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vorskla Poltava face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Veres Rivne in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Vorskla Poltava's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Veres Rivne's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Veres Rivne's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Vorskla Poltava, 0.70 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Vorskla Poltava 2–1 Veres Rivne — a Vorskla Poltava win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Veres Rivne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Veres Rivne 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG and Veres Rivne 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.997 / defence 1.107 | Veres Rivne attack 0.728 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.270. Veres Rivne's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 48 games and Veres Rivne's last 47.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 30%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.74 | Draw 2.96 | Veres Rivne 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 70% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.16 / Veres Rivne 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.997 / def 1.107 | Veres Rivne attack 0.728 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Veres Rivne xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 36% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.73x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Vorskla Poltava's last 48 games and Veres Rivne's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
36%
2.74
34%
2.96
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.18
1.02
Veres Rivne xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.02 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 19W 11D 18L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Veres Rivne's form line: 10W 13D 25L from 48 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 6D 13L from their last 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.15 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
Vorskla Poltava (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 19W 11D 18L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 10W 13D 25L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Veres Rivne away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.57 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
3
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 52%, Veres Rivne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vorskla Poltava) and 35% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 39% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 35% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 65% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Veres Rivne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Veres Rivne 2-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG and Veres Rivne 1.02 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Veres Rivne attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 30%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Veres Rivne 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.