Kryvbas KR 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Kryvbas KR welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kryvbas KR stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Obolon'-Brovar — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Obolon'-Brovar away from home: 2W 2D 5L from their last 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Kryvbas KR are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Kryvbas KR, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2023, ended Kryvbas KR 0–0 Obolon'-Brovar — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 56% versus Obolon'-Brovar 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 67% | Obolon'-Brovar 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.193 / defence 1.019 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.711 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.202. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 49 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 18.

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 52% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 20%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.91 | Draw 3.59 | Obolon'-Brovar 5.06. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 22% (last 9 away games).

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