Vasteras SK FK 1-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hitachi Energy Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Vasteras SK FK's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Malmo FF's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Malmo FF have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Malmo FF are 1.20 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Vasteras SK FK's last 10 home games and Malmo FF's last 10 away games) — Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Malmo FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Malmo FF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Malmo FF — a Malmo FF win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 46% versus Malmo FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 52% | Malmo FF 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.01 xG and Malmo FF 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.810 / defence 1.278 | Malmo FF attack 1.115 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.216. Vasteras SK FK's defence rating of 1.278 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Malmo FF's projected output up. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 26 games and Malmo FF's last 56.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 54%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 4.66 | Draw 4.08 | Malmo FF 1.85. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vasteras SK FK's last 10 home games and Malmo FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 80% (last 10 home games) | Malmo FF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 27 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.01 / Malmo FF 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.810 / def 1.278 | Malmo FF attack 1.115 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Malmo FF xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF FAQs
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 27) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 21% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 0.81x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.11x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Vasteras SK FK's last 26 games and Malmo FF's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
21%
4.66
24%
4.08
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.73
Malmo FF xG
4.66
21%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
4%
26.32
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.73 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 24W 10D 22L from 56 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 37W 10D 9L across 56 games — 2.16 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 13W 6D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 15W 6D 7L across their last 28 away games, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.18 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK (Home) vs Malmo FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF Form FAQs
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 10D 22L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 37W 10D 9L in their last 56 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.61 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Vasteras SK FK have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
1
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Malmo FF have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 46%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasteras SK FK) and 61% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Malmo FF in 39%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Malmo FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 61% of Malmo FF's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 75% of Malmo FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF finished level at 1-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.01 xG and Malmo FF 1.73 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.28 against Malmo FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 21% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 54%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 52%, Malmo FF 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.