IF Elfsborg 1-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees BK Hacken travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Elfsborg 1.60 PPG, BK Hacken 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IF Elfsborg, 2 for BK Hacken and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2024, ended 5–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus BK Hacken 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IF Elfsborg 62% | BK Hacken 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.18 xG and BK Hacken 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.248 / defence 0.913 | BK Hacken attack 1.141 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.216. Data: 56 IF Elfsborg games / 56 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 58% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 21%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | BK Hacken 4.76. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | BK Hacken 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 58% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.18 / BK Hacken 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.248 / def 0.913 | BK Hacken attack 1.141 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
BK Hacken xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 58% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
Record (6 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.25) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.79
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.45
1.27
BK Hacken xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
11%
8.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
2%
41.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.27 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 32W 9D 15L from 56 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 18L across 56 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.88 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 18W 6D 4L from 28 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 9W 6D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.12 scored and 1.52 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 32W 9D 15L in their last 56 games (1.88 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 29W 9D 18L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or BK Hacken away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.14 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.18 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, BK Hacken 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for IF Elfsborg and 64% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; BK Hacken in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 50% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 64% of BK Hacken's.
Do IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IF Elfsborg 1-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.18 xG and BK Hacken 1.27 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. BK Hacken outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.25 / defence 0.91 against BK Hacken attack 1.14 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 58% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 21%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a BK Hacken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, BK Hacken 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.88 PPG, BK Hacken 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.