Malmo FF 1-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Malmo FF face IFK Varnamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Varnamo make the trip to Eleda Stadion to face Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Eleda Stadion this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Malmo FF. A 1.40 PPG lead over IFK Varnamo (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Malmo FF have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with IFK Varnamo managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 4–0 with Malmo FF winning.
The historical record gives Malmo FF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 42% versus IFK Varnamo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 66% | IFK Varnamo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.95 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.519 / defence 0.598 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.853 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.216. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.519 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Malmo FF's defence rating of 0.598 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Malmo FF games / 55 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 69% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 11%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | IFK Varnamo 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 30% | IFK Varnamo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 69% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 40% | xG Malmo FF 1.95 / IFK Varnamo 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.519 / def 0.598 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.853 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.62
IFK Varnamo xG
40%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Malmo FF 1 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 69% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (5 meetings): Malmo FF 3W | Draws 2 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Malmo FF's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.85x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.87
11%
9.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.57
0.62
IFK Varnamo xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
9.38
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
37%
2.71
2%
66.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.62 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 37W 9D 9L from 55 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 25L across 55 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Varnamo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 22W 3D 2L from 27 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 5D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Malmo FF are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 37W 9D 9L in their last 55 games (2.18 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 20W 10D 25L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.56 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 0-4 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Malmo FF
4
Draws
0
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Malmo FF 3-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 37%, IFK Varnamo 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Malmo FF) and 48% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 48% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Malmo FF's matches and 48% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF and IFK Varnamo finished level at 1-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.95 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.62 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Malmo FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.52 / defence 0.60 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.85 / defence 0.86, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 69% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 11%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 66%, IFK Varnamo 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.