Gais 0-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host IFK Varnamo at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 6W 3D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gais are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gais 1.20 PPG, IFK Varnamo 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gais, 2 for IFK Varnamo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 41% versus IFK Varnamo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 55% | IFK Varnamo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.15 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.946 / defence 0.759 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.874 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.240. Gais's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Gais games / 56 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 32% | IFK Varnamo 26%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | IFK Varnamo 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Gais 30% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 32% | IFK Varnamo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Gais 1.15 / IFK Varnamo 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.946 / def 0.759 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.874 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Gais (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.82
IFK Varnamo xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Gais vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Gais 0 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Gais vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Gais vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 43% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gais and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
Record (3 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 2W.
What form are Gais and IFK Varnamo in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.95) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.14
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gais xG
Total xG
1.97
0.82
IFK Varnamo xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Gais and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gais and 0.82 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Gais have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 29W 10D 17L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 20W 11D 25L from 56 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Varnamo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gais have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (17W 5D 6L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 12W 6D 10L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 29W 10D 17L in their last 56 games (1.73 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 20W 11D 25L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Gais or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and IFK Varnamo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gais's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gais
3
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 39%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gais) and 46% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 32%; Gais have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Gais's recent matches and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Gais's recent games and 46% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gais's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and IFK Varnamo finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.15 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.82 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gais fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.95 / defence 0.76 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.87 / defence 0.82, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 43% | Draw 32% | IFK Varnamo 26%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.