Suwon City FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Suwon City FC face Pohang Steelers.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Suwon City FC have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Pohang Steelers (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Suwon City FC, 3 for Pohang Steelers and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2024, ended Suwon City FC 1–1 Pohang Steelers — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 36 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 59% and Pohang Steelers 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | Pohang Steelers 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon City FC surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Pohang Steelers have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Pohang Steelers surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Suwon City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.35 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.960 / defence 0.987 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.303 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.103. Pohang Steelers's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Suwon City FC's projected output up. Pohang Steelers have an above-average attack rating of 1.303, which lifts their away xG to 1.42. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 39 games and Pohang Steelers's last 39.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 39%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.79 | Draw 3.94 | Pohang Steelers 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Pohang Steelers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Pohang Steelers 90% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights