Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Incheon United welcome Suwon City FC to Sungui Arena Park in K League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 21 July 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Incheon United have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Incheon United at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Suwon City FC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Suwon City FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Suwon City FC — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Incheon United's games and 60% of Suwon City FC's (from Incheon United's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Incheon United, 3 for Suwon City FC and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Jun 2024, ended Incheon United 1–3 Suwon City FC — a Suwon City FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Suwon City FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Suwon City FC 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Incheon United surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Suwon City FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Incheon United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.22 xG and Suwon City FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.765 / defence 1.039 | Suwon City FC attack 1.127 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.118. Incheon United's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Data: built from Incheon United's last 56 games and Suwon City FC's last 56.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 34% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.91 | Draw 3.73 | Suwon City FC 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Incheon United 60% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 34% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Incheon United 1.22 / Suwon City FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.765 / def 1.039 | Suwon City FC attack 1.127 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Suwon City FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Incheon United vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Incheon United 1 - 4 Suwon City FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 34% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Incheon United vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.77x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Incheon United's last 56 games and Suwon City FC's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.73
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.53
1.31
Suwon City FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Incheon United vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.31 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Incheon United come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 24D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 61 outings (20W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.33 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Incheon United's home form reads 9W 12D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 5D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Incheon United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
Incheon United (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Incheon United
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Incheon United vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 19W 24D 18L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 20W 13D 28L in their last 61 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Suwon City FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.30 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Suwon City FC have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Incheon United's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Incheon United
5
Draws
4
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Incheon United vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Incheon United have won 1, Suwon City FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 July 2024: Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 50%, Suwon City FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Incheon United) and 60% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 30% of games; Suwon City FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Incheon United vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Incheon United and Suwon City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Incheon United's recent matches and 57% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Incheon United and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Incheon United's recent games and 60% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Incheon United's recent matches and 93% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Suwon City FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Incheon United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Incheon United 1-4 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.22 xG and Suwon City FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Suwon City FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 34% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 39%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.33 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.