FC Seoul 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Seoul World Cup Stadium plays host to FC Seoul versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
FC Seoul (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Seoul World Cup Stadium, FC Seoul have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for FC Seoul, 1.80 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Seoul 1W, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 56% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 56% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.59 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.112 / defence 1.055 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.963 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.118. Data: 56 FC Seoul games / 23 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 48% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 48% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Seoul 1.59 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.112 / def 1.055 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.963 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 48% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): FC Seoul 1W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.11) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.96x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 56/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
48%
2.09
25%
4.01
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.72
1.14
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.14 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 8W 6D 9L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 12W 7D 4L from 23 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Seoul.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 4W 5D 2L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 12W 7D 4L in their last 23 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.45 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 5-1 on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Seoul
3
Draws
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 54%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (FC Seoul) and 36% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 46%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 46% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of FC Seoul's recent games and 36% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.59 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 48% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 56%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with FC Seoul winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.