Daejeon Citizen 1-2 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pohang Steelers (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Daejeon Citizen face Pohang Steelers.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers meet at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 3W 3D 4L at Daejeon World Cup Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Pohang Steelers (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Pohang Steelers are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Daejeon Citizen 0W, Pohang Steelers 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 61% and Pohang Steelers 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 48% | Pohang Steelers 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.793 / defence 1.003 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.329 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.118. Daejeon Citizen's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pohang Steelers have an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Daejeon Citizen games / 56 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 43%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Pohang Steelers 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Pohang Steelers 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.22 / Pohang Steelers 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.793 / def 1.003 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.329 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Pohang Steelers xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Daejeon Citizen 1 - 2 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 31% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers?
Record (3 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 0W | Draws 1 | Pohang Steelers 2W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.79) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (1.33x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
31%
3.22
25%
3.92
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.49
Pohang Steelers xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.49 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 16W 23D 22L from 61 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 27W 24D 10L across 61 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pohang Steelers by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daejeon Citizen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 12W 10D 9L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 10W 13D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.46 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Pohang Steelers in 61%.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Pohang Steelers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 16W 23D 22L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 27W 24D 10L in their last 61 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.48 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pohang Steelers have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-3 on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daejeon Citizen
1
Draws
6
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, Pohang Steelers have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 0-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 55%, Pohang Steelers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daejeon Citizen) and 45% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 64% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 45% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Daejeon Citizen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Daejeon Citizen 1-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.49 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.33 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 31% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 43%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 48%, Pohang Steelers 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.