Incheon United 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Incheon United welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Sungui Arena Park in K League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 5 July 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Incheon United have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Incheon United's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Form points away from home here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Incheon United's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Incheon United, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Incheon United 2–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Incheon United in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 55% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 45% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.09 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.791 / defence 1.029 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.953 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.144. Incheon United's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Incheon United's last 53 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 20.

Result probabilities: Incheon United 35% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.87 | Draw 3.45 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Incheon United 50% (last 10 home games) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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