Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors meet at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daejeon Citizen have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Daejeon Citizen are significantly better at Daejeon World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Daejeon Citizen, 0.60 for Jeonbuk Motors — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 0 for Jeonbuk Motors and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 59% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 47% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.17 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.761 / defence 0.904 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.818 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.166. Daejeon Citizen's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Daejeon Citizen games / 53 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 43% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 27%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 43% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.17 / Jeonbuk Motors 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.761 / def 0.904 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.818 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Jeonbuk Motors xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 43% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (1 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 0W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 0W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.76) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.82x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.32
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.03
0.86
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 0.86 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 21D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.26 PPG from 58 outings (19W 16D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.26 for Jeonbuk Motors. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Daejeon Citizen's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (8W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 16W 21D 21L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 19W 16D 23L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.52 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daejeon Citizen
5
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 52%, Jeonbuk Motors 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daejeon Citizen) and 38% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 31% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 34% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.17 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.86 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.76 / defence 0.90 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 43% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 27%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 47%, Jeonbuk Motors 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.19 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.