Suwon City FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Ulsan Hyundai FC — this Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 5 July 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Suwon City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon City FC 1.80 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Ulsan Hyundai FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Suwon City FC. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Suwon City FC 0–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 55% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon City FC surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.44 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.955 / defence 0.907 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.102 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.144. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 53 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 53.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.28 | Draw 3.83 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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