Daegu FC 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 37%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to DGB Daegu Bank Park to face Daegu FC in K League 1 (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 09:30 UK time.
Current Form
Daegu FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have the stronger record — 5 wins to Daegu FC's 0, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Daegu FC 0–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Daegu FC surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.083 / defence 1.076 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.937 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.041. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 41 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 41.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.69 | Draw 3.41 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daegu FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 8 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Daegu FC 1.12 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.083 / def 1.076 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.937 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 8) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 37% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.94x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 41 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.41
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.17
1.05
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.05 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 23W 26D 27L from 76 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 44W 16D 16L across 76 games — 1.95 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 13W 16D 9L from their last 38 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 17W 9D 12L across their last 38 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 26D 27L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
4
Draws
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 42% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 42% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 37% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.