Al Riyadh 1-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Riyadh face Al Taee.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Taee travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Riyadh in Pro League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Riyadh's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Al Taee have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Taee away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Riyadh at 0.90 PPG versus Al Taee's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al Taee 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Al Riyadh 2–3 Al Taee — a Al Taee win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al Taee in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 52% versus Al Taee 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 48% | Al Taee 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al Taee 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.663 / defence 1.022 | Al Taee attack 0.668 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.420. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.329 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Riyadh's projected output up. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.668 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 27 games and Al Taee's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 42% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.38 | Draw 3.28 | Al Taee 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 40% (last 10 away games).

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