Al-Nassr 3-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Fayha, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
The historical record gives Al-Nassr a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Fayha trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 51% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Fayha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.498 / defence 1.223 | Al-Fayha attack 1.112 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.420. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Al-Nassr games / 57 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 51% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Fayha 3.45. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 80% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 51% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 79% | xG Al-Nassr 2.54 / Al-Fayha 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.498 / def 1.223 | Al-Fayha attack 1.112 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Al-Fayha xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 51% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 29% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.54. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
51%
1.96
20%
5.09
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
4.46
1.93
Al-Fayha xG
1.96
51%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.79
Clean Sheet
15%
6.89
8%
12.62
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
2%
43.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.93 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 4.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 57 games, going 41W 9D 7L for 2.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.19 PPG from 57 outings (17W 17D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 21W 5D 2L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.18 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 41W 9D 7L in their last 57 games (2.32 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.43 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 61%, Al-Fayha 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Nassr and 61% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Nassr's games and 68% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Nassr's matches and 61% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 3-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.54 xG and Al-Fayha 1.93 xG, a combined 4.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.50 / defence 1.22 against Al-Fayha attack 1.11 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 51% | Draw 20% | Al-Fayha 29%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 70%, Al-Fayha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.