Al Okhdood 1-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Damac at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Okhdood 0.80 PPG, Damac 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Okhdood have won 0, Damac 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Damac winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Damac in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 44% versus Damac 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 56% | Damac 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.03 xG and Damac 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.836 / defence 1.196 | Damac attack 0.779 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.422. Data: 27 Al Okhdood games / 57 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 28% | Draw 30% | Damac 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Damac 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 50% | Damac 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 28% | Draw 30% | Damac 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Okhdood 1.03 / Damac 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.836 / def 1.196 | Damac attack 0.779 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Damac (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Damac xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Damac kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Damac kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Al Okhdood 1 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Damac part of?
Al Okhdood vs Damac is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 28% chance of winning, Damac a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Okhdood and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Damac in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
28%
3.56
30%
3.39
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.35
1.32
Damac xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.32 for Damac, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 3D 17L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Okhdood's home form reads 5W 0D 8L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.41 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 7W 3D 17L in their last 27 games (0.89 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 8D 10L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Damac away?
Al Okhdood's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.15 PPG; Damac away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Damac specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Damac have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Damac see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 46%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Okhdood) and 38% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Damac in 31%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 31% of games; Damac in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 54% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 38% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Damac tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Damac in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al Okhdood 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.03 xG and Damac 1.32 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Damac attack 0.78 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 28% | Draw 30% | Damac 42%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 56%, Damac 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.