Al Taawon 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taawon face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Taawon's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Taawon have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2023, ended Al Taawon 1–1 Al Khaleej Saihat — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 63% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al Khaleej Saihat 46%). Note also that Al Khaleej Saihat surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.34 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.157 / defence 0.915 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.857 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.441. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 57 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 57.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.44 | Draw 3.55 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al Taawon 1.34 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.157 / def 0.915 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.857 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 18 April 2024 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 41% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.86x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 57 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.55
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.47
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.13 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 57 games, going 29W 15D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (18W 11D 28L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 14W 6D 8L across their last 28 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al Khaleej Saihat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 29W 15D 13L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 11D 28L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.71 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat, the earliest from January 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
4
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 4, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Al Taawon 0-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 68%, Al Khaleej Saihat 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Taawon) and 32% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej Saihat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 32% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al Taawon's recent games and 32% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 71% of Al Khaleej Saihat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.34 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 41% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 31%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 53%, Al Khaleej Saihat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.