Al-Raed 3-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Monday 28 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Raed's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al Riyadh have collected 1.33 PPG across their last 3 games: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Riyadh are 0.53 PPG clear of Al-Raed over their recent games (1.33 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 0% of Al-Raed's games and 33% of Al Riyadh's. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 67% | Al Riyadh 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.33 xG and Al Riyadh 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.897 / defence 1.267 | Al Riyadh attack 0.946 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.442. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Al-Raed's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Riyadh's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 33 games and Al Riyadh's last 3.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 29% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.40 | Draw 4.19 | Al Riyadh 2.14. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 3 games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 33% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 29% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Al-Raed 1.33 / Al Riyadh 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.897 / def 1.267 | Al Riyadh attack 0.946 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Riyadh xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 28 August 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Raed 3 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 29% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.95x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Al-Raed's last 33 games and Al Riyadh's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
29%
3.40
24%
4.19
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.06
1.73
Al Riyadh xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
5%
19.14
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.73 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Riyadh's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L.
Put side by side, Al Riyadh are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al-Raed (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al-Raed or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 20 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Raed won Al-Raed 3-0 Al Riyadh on 28 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
1
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Raed have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2025: Al Riyadh 1-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Riyadh?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al-Raed) and 33% (Al Riyadh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Raed and 67% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh in 33%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 100% of games; Al Riyadh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Raed and Al Riyadh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 33% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Raed and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Raed's matches and 67% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 100% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Riyadh 3-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.33 xG and Al Riyadh 1.73 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Al Riyadh attack 0.95 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 29% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 47%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 67%, Al Riyadh 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Raed winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Raed scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.