Al Okhdood 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Okhdood welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Okhdood's games and 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's (from Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2024, ended Al Okhdood 0–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Okhdood trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 53% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.31 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 1.029 / defence 1.068 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.308 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.215. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.308, which lifts their away xG to 1.70. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 34 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.43 | Draw 4.07 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.16. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.31 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Al Okhdood 34 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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