Al Wehda Club 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wehda Club face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 51% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 48% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 0.95 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.896 / defence 1.181 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.649 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.649 — the away xG of 2.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Al Wehda Club games / 63 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Wehda Club 0.95 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.896 / def 1.181 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.649 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.59
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 10% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 71% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 2.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-3 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
10%
9.81
19%
5.34
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 3
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.54
2.59
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
9.81
10%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
8%
13.33
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
1%
130.81
27%
3.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.59 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 14D 31L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.41 PPG from 63 outings (47W 11D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 10W 9D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.32 points per game from 31 outings (22W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.43 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 18W 14D 31L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 47W 11D 5L in their last 63 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
2
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Wehda Club) and 55% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%; Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 42% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 55% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Wehda Club 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Wehda Club 1-2 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 0.95 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.59 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.65 / defence 0.73, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 48%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.