Al Taee 0-2 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al Taee welcome Al Okhdood to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taee's home record at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Taee) versus 0.70 (Al Okhdood). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Taee, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Okhdood winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Okhdood trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 52% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 52% | Al Okhdood 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.948 / defence 1.045 | Al Okhdood attack 0.607 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Data: 63 Al Taee games / 33 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 54% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Al Okhdood 5.88. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 60% | Al Okhdood 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 54% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Taee 1.66 / Al Okhdood 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.948 / def 1.045 | Al Okhdood attack 0.607 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Okhdood?
Al Taee 0 - 2 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Taee vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 54% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Taee and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Okhdood in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (0.95) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
54%
1.84
29%
3.46
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.50
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
31.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al Taee and 0.84 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Al Taee have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 7D 18L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Al Okhdood's form line: 8W 6D 19L from 33 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 0.94 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 5D 9L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taee are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.94 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 8W 6D 19L in their last 33 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Taee's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.38 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Taee
0
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Okhdood?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2024, when Al Taee 0-2 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Okhdood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 56%, Al Okhdood 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Taee) and 50% (Al Okhdood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Taee's recent matches and 44% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Taee's matches and 50% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al Taee and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Taee 0-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Taee fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Al Okhdood attack 0.61 / defence 1.19, drawn from 63/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 54% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 17%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 52%, Al Okhdood 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 0.94 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.