Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al Okhdood at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al Okhdood and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 43% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 34% | Al Okhdood 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Okhdood 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.950 / defence 0.932 | Al Okhdood attack 0.907 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.257. Data: 35 Al-Ettifaq games / 35 Al Okhdood games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Al Okhdood 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.29 / Al Okhdood 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.950 / def 0.932 | Al Okhdood attack 0.907 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Okhdood xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 16:45 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.60
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.35
1.06
Al Okhdood xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.06 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 12D 10L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.94 PPG from 35 outings (9W 6D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 6W 7D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.94 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 12D 10L in their last 35 games (1.46 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 9W 6D 20L in their last 35 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.47 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 59%, Al Okhdood 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Ettifaq) and 47% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 41% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 47% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Okhdood 1.06 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Al Okhdood attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 34%, Al Okhdood 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.