Krylia Sovetov 0-4 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Krylia Sovetov welcome Zenit to Solidarnost Samara Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Krylia Sovetov haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 5D 2L at Solidarnost Samara Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zenit haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zenit's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Zenit have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Krylia Sovetov.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zenit have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Zenit in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 63% versus Zenit 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 60% | Zenit 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.21 xG and Zenit 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.888 / defence 0.932 | Zenit attack 1.176 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.330. Data: 30 Krylia Sovetov games / 30 Zenit games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 43%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Zenit 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Zenit 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.21 / Zenit 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.888 / def 0.932 | Zenit attack 1.176 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Zenit (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Zenit xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 4 Zenit.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 31% chance of winning, Zenit a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Record (6 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 2 | Zenit 4W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.89) and Zenit's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.77
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.66
1.46
Zenit xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.46 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 11W 8D 11L from 30 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. Krylia Sovetov haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 7L across 30 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. Zenit haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zenit's away record stands at 8W 4D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.73 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zenit in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Pre-Season
Zenit
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Zenit have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.80 PPG; Zenit away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Zenit in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 60%, Zenit 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Krylia Sovetov) and 47% (Zenit).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 67% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 47% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Zenit tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zenit in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Krylia Sovetov 0-4 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.21 xG and Zenit 1.46 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Zenit attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Zenit 43%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 60%, Zenit 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Zenit's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.