Khimki 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Dinamo Makhachkala travel to Arena Khimki to take on Khimki. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.45 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.318. Data: 0 Khimki games / 0 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khimki 40% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 32%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Dinamo Makhachkala 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 40% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Khimki 1.45 / Dinamo Makhachkala 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Khimki (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Khimki 1 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 40% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.85x the league average against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dinamo Makhachkala's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.55
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.74
1.29
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Khimki and 1.29 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Pre-Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Khimki
1
Draws
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 2 meetings on record, Khimki have won 0, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Dinamo Makhachkala 4-1 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 1-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.45 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 40% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 32%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.