FC Rostov 0-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow meet at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
FC Rostov (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Rostov haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Rostov Arena, FC Rostov have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Rostov are significantly better at Rostov Arena than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. CSKA Moscow haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, CSKA Moscow in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
CSKA Moscow hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 60% and CSKA Moscow 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 63% | CSKA Moscow 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.65 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.079 / defence 1.057 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.211 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.395. CSKA Moscow have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 FC Rostov games / 30 CSKA Moscow games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 36% | Draw 23% | CSKA Moscow 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | CSKA Moscow 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 60% | CSKA Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 36% | Draw 23% | CSKA Moscow 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Rostov 1.65 / CSKA Moscow 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.079 / def 1.057 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.211 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.78
CSKA Moscow xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Rostov 0 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 36% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): FC Rostov 0W | Draws 2 | CSKA Moscow 4W.
What form are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC Rostov (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 1.08x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.21x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
36%
2.80
23%
4.34
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
3.44
1.78
CSKA Moscow xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
6%
16.66
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.78 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 12W 7D 11L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. FC Rostov haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 6L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. CSKA Moscow haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for FC Rostov against 1.60 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — FC Rostov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 4W 7D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Rostov are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.87 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Pre-Season
CSKA Moscow
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
FC Rostov's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 2.07 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
4
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 2, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC Rostov, 73% for CSKA Moscow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC Rostov and 60% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Rostov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Rostov's games and 73% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Rostov's matches and 60% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Rostov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow finished level at 0-0 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.65 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.78 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Rostov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. CSKA Moscow landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 36% | Draw 23% | CSKA Moscow 41%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 63%, CSKA Moscow 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.43 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.