Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Krylia Sovetov have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nizhny Novgorod's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Krylia Sovetov's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Nizhny Novgorod's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Nizhny Novgorod — a Nizhny Novgorod win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 59% versus Nizhny Novgorod 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 56% | Nizhny Novgorod 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 2.03 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.861 / defence 0.858 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.727 / defence 1.627. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.328. Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating of 1.627 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Krylia Sovetov's projected output up. Nizhny Novgorod's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 59 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 59.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 65% | Draw 20% | Nizhny Novgorod 14%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.53 | Draw 4.94 | Nizhny Novgorod 6.98. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (65%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Krylia Sovetov's last 10 home games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 home games) | Nizhny Novgorod 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 65% | Draw 20% | Nizhny Novgorod 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 2.03 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.861 / def 0.858 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.727 / def 1.627 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Nizhny Novgorod xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 65% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.86x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.73x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 59 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
65%
1.53
20%
4.94
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.86
0.83
Nizhny Novgorod xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
53.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.83 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 15D 25L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 17W 11D 31L from 59 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.05 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 10D 7L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 5W 4D 19L from their last 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.08 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Nizhny Novgorod (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 15D 25L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 17W 11D 31L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.54 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nizhny Novgorod won Nizhny Novgorod 5-2 Krylia Sovetov on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
4
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Nizhny Novgorod have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Nizhny Novgorod 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Krylia Sovetov) and 43% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 29% of games; Nizhny Novgorod in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 39% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 43% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 57% of Nizhny Novgorod's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.03 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.86 / defence 0.86 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.73 / defence 1.63, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 65% | Draw 20% | Nizhny Novgorod 14%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 56%, Nizhny Novgorod 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.22 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.