Casa Pia 1-3 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Farense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Casa Pia host Farense at Estádio Pina Manique in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Casa Pia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia at Estádio Pina Manique this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Farense have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Farense are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Casa Pia have won 1, Farense 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Casa Pia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Farense in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 47% versus Farense 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 41% | Farense 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.10 xG and Farense 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.628 / defence 1.078 | Farense attack 0.824 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.307. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.628 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Casa Pia games / 17 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 34% | Draw 29% | Farense 37%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Farense 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 50% | Farense 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Pina Manique • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 34% | Draw 29% | Farense 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Casa Pia 1.10 / Farense 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.628 / def 1.078 | Farense attack 0.824 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Farense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Farense xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Farense kick off?
Casa Pia vs Farense kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Estádio Pina Manique.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Farense?
Casa Pia 1 - 3 Farense.
Where is Casa Pia vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Pina Manique.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Farense part of?
Casa Pia vs Farense is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 34% chance of winning, Farense a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Casa Pia and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Farense?
Record (1 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Farense 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Farense in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Farense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.63x the league average against Farense's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.39
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.26
1.16
Farense xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.16 for Farense, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Farense, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 8L across 17 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Casa Pia on 1.12 PPG, Farense on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.12 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Farense's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Farense in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Farense have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Farense away?
Farense's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.62 PPG; Farense away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Casa Pia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
2
Draws
1
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Farense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Farense 0-0 Casa Pia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 38%, Farense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Casa Pia) and 50% (Farense).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 50% of games; Farense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Farense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 50% of Farense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Casa Pia's recent games and 50% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Farense tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Farense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Farense cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Casa Pia 1-3 at Estádio Pina Manique, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.10 xG and Farense 1.16 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Farense outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.63 / defence 1.08 against Farense attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 34% | Draw 29% | Farense 37%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 41%, Farense 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Farense's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.12 PPG, Farense 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.