Stal Mielec 2-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Gornik Zabrze at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Stal Mielec — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Gornik Zabrze's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 3 for Gornik Zabrze and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 40% versus Gornik Zabrze 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 35% | Gornik Zabrze 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.38 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.091 / defence 1.056 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.174 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.201. Data: 48 Stal Mielec games / 48 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 34% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 39%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Gornik Zabrze 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 50% | Gornik Zabrze 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 34% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Stal Mielec 1.38 / Gornik Zabrze 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.091 / def 1.056 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.174 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Gornik Zabrze xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Stal Mielec 2 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 34% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (4 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 3W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
34%
2.92
27%
3.71
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.87
1.49
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.49 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 13D 20L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 18W 13D 17L from 48 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.21 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.25 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.50 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 42%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stal Mielec) and 46% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 33%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 46% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.38 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.49 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 34% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 39%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 35%, Gornik Zabrze 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.21 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.