Pogon Szczecin 2-3 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Stal Mielec.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Stal Mielec 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 4–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 57% versus Stal Mielec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Stal Mielec 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.95 xG and Stal Mielec 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.259 / defence 1.083 | Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.156. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Pogon Szczecin games / 49 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 55% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 19%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Stal Mielec 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Stal Mielec 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 55% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.95 / Stal Mielec 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.259 / def 1.083 | Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Stal Mielec xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 3 Stal Mielec.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 55% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
Record (4 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.26x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.85
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.06
1.10
Stal Mielec xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
37.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.10 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 49 games, going 25W 11D 13L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (16W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 13W 5D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (6W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.14 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 11D 13L in their last 49 games (1.76 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Stal Mielec away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.83 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 62%, Stal Mielec 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pogon Szczecin) and 38% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 38% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 38% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Pogon Szczecin 2-3 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.95 xG and Stal Mielec 1.10 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 / defence 1.08 against Stal Mielec attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 55% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 19%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Stal Mielec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Stal Mielec 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Stal Mielec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.