Ruch Chorzów 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Śląski to take on Ruch Chorzów in Ekstraklasa (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Monday 13 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruch Chorzów stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Ruch Chorzów have posted 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 home games — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Radomiak Radom — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Ruch Chorzów trading profile (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruch Chorzów 46% versus Radomiak Radom 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 54% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 1.43 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.915 / defence 1.461 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.140 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.176. Ruch Chorzów's defence rating of 1.461 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Ruch Chorzów's last 13 games and Radomiak Radom's last 48.
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 27% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 49%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 3.72 | Draw 4.07 | Radomiak Radom 2.06. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.96) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ruch Chorzów's last 6 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ruch Chorzów 50% (last 6 home games) | Radomiak Radom 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Śląski • Kick-off: Monday 13 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 27% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Ruch Chorzów 1.43 / Radomiak Radom 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.915 / def 1.461 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.140 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Radomiak Radom xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 13 November 2023 at Stadion Śląski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom?
Ruch Chorzów 0 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Śląski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 15) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 27% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruch Chorzów's attack rating (0.92) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Ruch Chorzów's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruch Chorzów's last 13 games and Radomiak Radom's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
27%
3.72
25%
4.07
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
3.39
1.96
Radomiak Radom xG
3.72
27%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.09
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
4%
26.37
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.96 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruch Chorzów come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 5D 7L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Ruch Chorzów — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ruch Chorzów's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across their last 6 home games, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 6 away games (2W 0D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Ruch Chorzów (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruch Chorzów at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruch Chorzów at home: 0.83 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ruch Chorzów
1
Draws
0
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruch Chorzów have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2024: Radomiak Radom 0-2 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom?
Ruch Chorzów have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 50%, Radomiak Radom 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ruch Chorzów) and 50% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów have failed to score in 33% of games; Radomiak Radom in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruch Chorzów vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 33% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 100% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruch Chorzów's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Śląski, Regular Season - 15, as Ruch Chorzów and Radomiak Radom drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 1.43 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.96 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruch Chorzów fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.92 / defence 1.46 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 27% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 49%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 54%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.