Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slask Wroclaw are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slask Wroclaw in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Slask Wroclaw 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 45% versus Slask Wroclaw 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 34% | Slask Wroclaw 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.909 / defence 1.305 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.113 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.188. Data: 47 Cracovia Krakow games / 48 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 26% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 49%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Slask Wroclaw 2.04. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Slask Wroclaw 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 26% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.20 / Slask Wroclaw 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.909 / def 1.305 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.113 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Slask Wroclaw xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 26% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (4 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.91x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
26%
3.90
26%
3.87
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.93
1.72
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
5%
21.88
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.72 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 15W 16D 16L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 18W 13D 16L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.30 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 16D 16L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.52 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 44%, Slask Wroclaw 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Cracovia Krakow and 35% for Slask Wroclaw.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 26% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 52% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 35% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Cracovia Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.72 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 1.30 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.11 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 26% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 49%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 34%, Slask Wroclaw 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.30 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.