Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cracovia Krakow travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cracovia Krakow stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Raków Częstochowa 4–1 Cracovia Krakow — a Raków Częstochowa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 44% versus Cracovia Krakow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 52% | Cracovia Krakow 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.70 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.334 / defence 0.668 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.810 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.152. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.334 — their 1.70 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa have a tight defence (rating 0.668), which is pulling Cracovia Krakow's projected output down. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 48 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 48.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 61% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 11%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.63 | Draw 3.68 | Cracovia Krakow 8.81. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (61%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 30% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 16 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 61% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.70 / Cracovia Krakow 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.334 / def 0.668 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.810 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Cracovia Krakow xG
40%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 16) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 61% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 11% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.33) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 48 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
61%
1.63
27%
3.68
11%
8.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.32
0.62
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
8.81
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
2%
48.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.62 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 48 games, going 31W 9D 8L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.27 PPG from 48 outings (15W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 19W 4D 1L across their last 24 home games, a 2.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 9D 8L in their last 48 games (2.12 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 16D 17L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.54 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 33%, Cracovia Krakow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Raków Częstochowa) and 33% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 46% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 75% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 16, as Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.70 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.62 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.33 / defence 0.67 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 61% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 11%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 52%, Cracovia Krakow 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.