Lech Poznan 1-3 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Widzew Łódź travel to Enea Stadion to take on Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Lech Poznan have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Lech Poznan's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Lech Poznan are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Widzew Łódź — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Lech Poznan's games and 90% of Widzew Łódź's (from Lech Poznan's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Lech Poznan have won 2, Widzew Łódź 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Lech Poznan 2–1 Widzew Łódź — a Lech Poznan win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 51% versus Widzew Łódź 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 49% | Widzew Łódź 45%). Note also that Widzew Łódź surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Lech Poznan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.366 / defence 0.937 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.014 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.172. Lech Poznan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.366 — their 2.03 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lech Poznan's last 49 games and Widzew Łódź's last 49.

Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 18%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.77 | Draw 3.97 | Widzew Łódź 5.47. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lech Poznan's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lech Poznan 60% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 90% (last 10 away games).

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