ŁKS Łódź 3-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ŁKS Łódź host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Ekstraklasa (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, ŁKS Łódź have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, ŁKS Łódź have posted 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 home games — 1.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 1W 8D 1L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Piast Gliwice have posted 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Piast Gliwice's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of ŁKS Łódź's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 36% versus Piast Gliwice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (ŁKS Łódź 57% | Piast Gliwice 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 0.81 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.705 / defence 1.511 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.819 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.181. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Piast Gliwice bring a tight defence (rating 0.784, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling ŁKS Łódź's projected output down. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.511 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Piast Gliwice's projected output up. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 14 games and Piast Gliwice's last 48.
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 20% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 52%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 4.98 | Draw 3.54 | Piast Gliwice 1.93. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 33% (last 6 home games) | Piast Gliwice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 20% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG ŁKS Łódź 0.81 / Piast Gliwice 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.705 / def 1.511 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.819 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
ŁKS Łódź 3 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 15) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 20% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
ŁKS Łódź's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ŁKS Łódź's last 14 games and Piast Gliwice's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
20%
4.98
28%
3.54
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.27
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
21.47
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.46 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ŁKS Łódź's recent record stands at 2W 1D 11L from 14 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 2W 10D 2L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Piast Gliwice by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ŁKS Łódź have managed 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 0W 5D 1L across their last 6 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 0.79 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
ŁKS Łódź (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 1D 11L in their last 14 games (0.50 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 10D 2L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.17 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 0.83 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Piast Gliwice 4-0 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 33%, Piast Gliwice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for ŁKS Łódź and 0% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 50% of games; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 67% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 67% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice finished level at 3-3 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 0.81 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.46 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.70 / defence 1.51 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.82 / defence 0.78, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 20% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 52%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 57%, Piast Gliwice 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.