Viking 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 April 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 7W 1D 2L at SR-Bank Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 63% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.95 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.078 / defence 1.124 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.945 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.743 / away 1.519. Data: 30 Viking games / 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Viking 46% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.12. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 46% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Viking 1.95 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.078 / def 1.124 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.945 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.743 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Viking (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 18:15 on Monday 1 April 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking 1 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 46% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (5 meetings): Viking 3W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.94x) against Viking's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
46%
2.18
22%
4.59
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Viking xG
Total xG
3.56
1.61
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Viking and 1.61 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 27W 12D 21L from 60 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 26L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Viking against 1.37 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 15W 7D 8L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 10W 5D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.87 scored and 1.77 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Viking's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.73 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Viking, 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Viking and 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Viking's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Viking's matches and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.95 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.61 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Viking fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 46% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 63%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.55 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.