Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sarpsborg 08 FF face ODD Ballklubb.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome ODD Ballklubb to Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
ODD Ballklubb's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.20 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and ODD Ballklubb's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–0 ODD Ballklubb — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% and ODD Ballklubb 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | ODD Ballklubb 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.137 / defence 1.069 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.050 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.363. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 31 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.05 | Draw 4.64 | ODD Ballklubb 3.38. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and ODD Ballklubb's last 10 away games) averaging 4.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% (last 10 home games) | ODD Ballklubb 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Sarpsborg 08 FF 31 games, ODD Ballklubb 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 2 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 / ODD Ballklubb 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.137 / def 1.069 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.050 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.53
ODD Ballklubb xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 2) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 49% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.14x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 31 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.64
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.54
1.53
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
4%
25.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.53 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 24W 10D 26L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 23W 14D 23L from 60 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.37 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 5D 11L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 9D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.42 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs ODD Ballklubb (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb Form FAQs
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.57 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 11 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
5
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 August 2024: ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%, ODD Ballklubb 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 57% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 57% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 60% of ODD Ballklubb's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.53 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, ODD Ballklubb 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.