Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Sarpsborg 08 FF managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 66% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.43 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.232 / defence 0.936 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.955 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Data: 59 Bodo/Glimt games / 59 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 66% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.43 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.232 / def 0.936 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.955 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 62% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (4 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 4W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.43. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.95x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
62%
1.60
18%
5.41
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.73
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
9%
11.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
2%
59.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.30 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 39W 10D 10L from 59 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 25L across 59 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 19W 8D 2L from 29 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 10W 5D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.90 scored and 1.76 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 71%.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 39W 10D 10L in their last 59 games (2.15 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 25L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.24 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Bodo/Glimt, 69% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bodo/Glimt and 69% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 66% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.43 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 73%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.