ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as ODD Ballklubb face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.30 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended ODD Ballklubb 1–1 Haugesund — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Haugesund — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 55% | Haugesund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.67 xG and Haugesund 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.002 / defence 0.958 | Haugesund attack 0.927 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.820 / away 1.417. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 30 games and Haugesund's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 29%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.13 | Draw 4.15 | Haugesund 3.46. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 60% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (ODD Ballklubb 30 games, Haugesund 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 1 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.67 / Haugesund 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.002 / def 0.958 | Haugesund attack 0.927 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.820 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Haugesund xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 1) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 47% chance of winning, Haugesund a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.00x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.93x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 30 games and Haugesund's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.15
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.93
1.26
Haugesund xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.26 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 14D 23L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.18 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 8D 16L from their last 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Haugesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 1 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Haugesund have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Haugesund on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Haugesund have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 December 2024: Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 57%, Haugesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (ODD Ballklubb) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 47% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.67 xG and Haugesund 1.26 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Haugesund attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 29%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 55%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG, Haugesund 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.