Venezia 1-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Venezia face Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Palermo at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (matchday 7). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Venezia — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palermo have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Venezia 1.60 PPG, Palermo 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Venezia's games and 80% of Palermo's (from Venezia's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Venezia, 0 for Palermo and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Venezia 3–2 Palermo — a Venezia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 58% versus Palermo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 46% | Palermo 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Palermo surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.17 xG and Palermo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.243 / defence 0.808 | Palermo attack 1.045 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.198. Data: built from Venezia's last 44 games and Palermo's last 43.
Result probabilities: Venezia 37% | Draw 35% | Palermo 29%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.73 | Draw 2.89 | Palermo 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Venezia 60% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 37% | Draw 35% | Palermo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Venezia 1.17 / Palermo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.243 / def 0.808 | Palermo attack 1.045 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Venezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Palermo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Palermo kick off?
Venezia vs Palermo kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Venezia 1 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Venezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Palermo part of?
Venezia vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 37% chance of winning, Palermo a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Venezia and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Venezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.24) and Palermo's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 44 games and Palermo's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
37%
2.73
35%
2.89
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.18
1.01
Palermo xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Venezia and 1.01 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 15W 13D 15L from 43 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 12L across 43 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.35 PPG, Palermo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 9W 6D 6L from their last 21 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 5W 8D 8L across their last 21 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.28 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
Venezia (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Venezia vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Palermo have gone 14W 17D 12L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Palermo away?
Venezia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.57 PPG; Palermo away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Venezia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palermo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won Palermo 0-3 Venezia.
Venezia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Palermo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 6, Palermo have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Venezia and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Palermo?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 62%, Palermo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 48% (Palermo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Palermo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Venezia's games and 62% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 48% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Venezia's recent matches and 76% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Venezia 1-3 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.17 xG and Palermo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Palermo attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 37% | Draw 35% | Palermo 29%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 46%, Palermo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.35 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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