Parma 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Parma take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Parma welcome Bari to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 7). Kick-off is Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Parma have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Bari — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bari's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Parma are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Parma, 1 for Bari and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2023, ended Parma 0–4 Bari — a Bari win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bari in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 41% versus Bari 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 37% | Bari 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Parma surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Bari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.93 xG and Bari 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.036 / defence 0.713 | Bari attack 0.916 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.153. Parma have a tight defence (rating 0.713), which is pulling Bari's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 44 games and Bari's last 44.
Result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 41% | Bari 24%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.92 | Draw 2.43 | Bari 4.08. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 40% (last 10 home games) | Bari 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 41% | Bari 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Parma 0.93 / Bari 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.036 / def 0.713 | Bari attack 0.916 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Bari xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Bari FAQs
What time does Parma vs Bari kick off?
Parma vs Bari kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Bari?
Parma 2 - 1 Bari.
Where is Parma vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Bari part of?
Parma vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 34% chance of winning, Bari a 24% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Parma and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Parma vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.04) and Bari's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 44 games and Bari's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
41%
2.43
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Parma xG
Total xG
1.68
0.75
Bari xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 14.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Parma and 0.75 for Bari, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Parma have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 21W 13D 12L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 19W 18D 9L from 46 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.65 PPG, Bari on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 4D 6L).
On the road, Bari have gone 11W 7D 5L from their last 23 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.35 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bari in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
Parma (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Parma vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Bari in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 21W 13D 12L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Bari have gone 19W 18D 9L in their last 46 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Bari away?
Parma's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.87 PPG; Bari away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Parma or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bari in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2023, when Bari won Bari 4-0 Parma.
Parma's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bari?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2024: Bari 1-1 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 35%, Bari 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Parma and 26% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Bari in 39%; Parma have failed to score in 30% of games; Bari in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Parma's recent matches and 44% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Parma's recent games and 26% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Parma's recent matches and 65% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Bari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.93 xG and Bari 0.75 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.04 / defence 0.71 against Bari attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 34% | Draw 41% | Bari 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 37%, Bari 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.65 PPG, Bari 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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