Cosenza 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Cremonese.

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Fixture Analysis

Cosenza welcome Cremonese to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 7). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 18:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Cosenza have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cosenza are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Cremonese — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.30 PPG, Cremonese 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Cosenza have won 0, Cremonese 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2022, ended Cosenza 1–3 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Cremonese in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 36% | Cremonese 46%). Note also that Cremonese surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.46 xG and Cremonese 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.172 / defence 1.018 | Cremonese attack 0.923 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.173. Data: built from Cosenza's last 44 games and Cremonese's last 6.

Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 26%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 3.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 50% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 70% (last 10 away games).

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